February cropping market update

Highlights for cropping

• Australia’s 2025/26 winter crop has been revised higher following the completion of harvest, with national production now estimated at around 66 million tonnes, up nine per cent year-on-year. Western Australia has again been the key driver, delivering a record winter crop that has reset the national supply profile and expanded the country’s exportable surplus across wheat, barley, and canola.

• With production now largely known, market attention has shifted decisively from supply outcomes to demand absorption and export execution. The scale of the crop means export performance will be critical in determining price outcomes over coming months, particularly as global grain markets remain well supplied.

• Export momentum is currently mixed across commodities. Barley and canola shipments are tracking strongly, with both commodities operating near the upper end of historical export ranges and supported by solid offshore demand. By contrast, wheat exports are lagging the pace required to clear the larger surplus, placing greater emphasis on export timing and execution through the remainder of the marketing year.

• Grain prices remain under pressure, particularly for wheat. A firmer Australian dollar, ample global supply, and cautious domestic buying interest have limited the sustainability of recent price rallies. While higher-protein wheat continues to attract some demand, broader market conditions remain challenging.

• Overall, the outlook for Australian grain markets is increasingly shaped by the ability to efficiently move large volumes into export channels. Execution risk, currency movements, and global demand conditions will be key factors influencing prices as the market works to absorb the expanded supply base.

Source: BB Agri Insights

Rod Baker

Agricultural Analyst

Rod is our Insights specialist for the cropping industry, combining a diverse agricultural background with an Environmental Science degree to deliver expert commentary on commodity markets and trends.