May's cropping market update

Highlights for cropping

• Seeding is well underway across Australia, but confidence is mixed. Queensland, northern New South Wales and southern Western Australia are tracking well thanks to good soil moisture and strong sowing progress. In contrast, South Australia is critically dry and confidence slipping on the dry outlook for the rest of the month. Soil moisture level across Victoria and southern New South Wales range from average to below average, with moisture deficits deepening and rainfall needed to support crop emergence.
• Wheat prices eased slightly over the month. Queensland and New South Wales fell two per cent as northern consumers are mostly covered into July. Victoria and South Australia held firm, supported by domestic feed demand and tightening supply. In Western Australia, values dropped eight per cent to $360/t FIS, reflecting soft export interest, currency strength, and nearby supply constraints. Barley was steadier – Western Australia down four per cent, while southeast markets lifted on strong livestock feed demand and limited grower selling.
• Offshore, global grain markets remain under pressure. While Chicago wheat futures are up 1.3 per cent for the month, they’ve fallen nearly five per cent from recent highs. US planting is ahead of schedule, and the winter wheat crop is in good condition. This favourable progress has removed a degree of risk premium from the market. However, it is still too early for complacency. Northern hemisphere harvests are several months away, and while short term weather risks have eased, they haven’t disappeared. Any disruption to crop development - particularly in the US Plains or Black Sea – could quickly shift sentiment.

Rod Baker

Agricultural Analyst

Rod is our Insights specialist for the cropping industry, combining a diverse agricultural background with an Environmental Science degree to deliver expert commentary on commodity markets and trends.