May's horticulture market update

Highlights for horticulture

• The Almond Board of Australia have reported that current 2025-26 season crop yields have come in below expectations. It is thought that the hot and dry conditions impacted kernel moisture across the higher value Nonpareil variety. Frosts in September have also impacted yields in some regions. This is the second downgrade of the almond crop. Early estimates pegged production at 172,000 tonnes which was revised down to 155,531 tonnes. The crop is expected to now come in between 125,000 and 140,000 tonnes. Alongside this expected shortfall in almond output is the ongoing strong export demand. Volumes exported remain at record levels, with over A$621m exported to China over the last 12 months alone. This elevated demand is anticipated to continue through 2025 with the US Californian crop locked out of the lucrative Chinese market. Prices over the next six months are expected to remain well above prior seasons as a result.
• A normalisation of supply towards the end of April has seen our wholesale vegetable price index begin to stabilise. This following the significant increases recorded during Q1 following Queensland flood events. Meanwhile, fruit prices have also begun to ease. Greater volumes of bananas, avocados and mandarins are coming to market which is weighing on the index.
• With the election run and done we have also included a summation of the key focus points for the industry over the next three years.

Sean Hickey

Senior Agricultural Analyst

Sean is our Insights specialist for the horticulture sector, utilising both his time spent within the industry alongside a Bachelor of Commerce to produce informed market analysis and commentary.