October sheep market update

Highlights for sheep

• Australian lamb prices have eased slightly from the record levels seen over the past few months. The National Trade Lamb Indicator (NTLI) has fallen -7.1 per cent from the recent peak at the start of August to now sit around 1,140 c/kg. At this level, the NTLI is up +36.1 per cent from the start of the year and +46.9 per cent higher than the five-year average. The ongoing concerns regarding tighter supply and the delayed arrival of large quantities of new season lambs is continuing to keep prices elevated.
• Lamb processing rates have picked up slightly throughout September. Average weekly slaughter averaged 366.1 thousand head, but this remains -6.0 per cent below September last year and -18.9 per cent below September 2023. Supply of new season lambs is expected to lift as we move further into spring, although quantities overall are forecast to be lower due to elevated destocking and unfavourable conditions over the past 18 months in key production areas.
• Prices are tipped to edge marginally lower throughout the next six weeks as the supply of new season lambs applies some level of downwards pressure. The other key factor to watch will be how the season develops, as should conditions be favourable across the southeast we may see restocking begin which will keep prices elevated as well.

Source: Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA)

Joe Boyle

Agricultural Analyst

Joe is our Insights specialist for the sheep industry. He hails from a cropping and sheep farm in northwestern Victoria and has studied a Bachelor of Agriculture at the University of Melbourne.