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June's Dairy market update

10 June 2025

Highlights for dairy

  • New season farmgate prices have been announced, with the response from farmers and advocacy groups ‘disappointed’. The average southern farmgate price of major processors for 2025/26 is around $8.81/kg MS. This is around 9 per cent (70 cents) above last season opening, and 7 per cent (55-60 cents) above last season closing prices. Advocacy groups point out the disparity between local and global dairy prices, which have lifted around 24 per cent since last year. We anticipate new season milk prices will reach $9.00/kg MS at some stage, but many are disappointed opening bids didn’t reach that mark.
  • Milk producers continue to face challenging seasonal conditions. An estimated 60 per cent of Australian dairy farms are thought to be impacted by either drought or flooding. Current season milk production is likely to finish slightly below last season’s 8.38 billion litres. But 2025/26 production is forecast to fall again to around 8.2 billion litres, or as low as 8.1 billion litres if adverse seasonal conditions are sustained.
A graph showing Australian cumulative year-on-year milk production for the 2024/25 season in percentage terms, from July 2024 through until April 2025. As the dry conditions have continued throughout regions of South Australia and Victoria, we have seen cumulative production come under pressure. Cumulative production has remained below the 2023/24 season throughout February, March and April as a result.
Source: Dairy Australia

James Maxwell

Senior Insights Manager

Jimmy is our Insights specialist for dairy which sits well with him due to his love of milk and cheese. His background is in cropping, having worked in the grains industry for over 15 years.

 

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